Restoring the Inland Route

Until 2004, Amtrak trains ran between Boston, Worcester, Springfield and Hartford to New York and Washington, running inland instead of hugging the coast. While FRA recently rejected a plan to reroute high speed trains along this corridor, restoring regular train service between these cities is feasible, at a reasonable cost and for reasonable outcomes.

Existing conditions

Massachusetts’ three largest cities, Boston, Worcester and Springfield lack decent rail connections. While there is substantial commuter service between Boston and Worcester, only one train, the Lakeshore Limited, runs between Springfield, Worcester and Boston. Trains can only go 60mph, below the 79mph default for most track, and the line has a lot of curves. As a result, the train is slow, taking 2h15m-2h26m to go 98 miles, when driving can take about 1h30m without traffic. However at rush hour, the drive slows to 2h15m. CSX also heavily uses the Springfield-Worcester segment, meaning that any upgrade will require good negotiation skills to avoid costly CSX demands. Further down the track, Springfield, Hartford, and New Haven will soon receive hourly commuter rail service.

High potential demand for train service

Cities such as Worcester, Springfield and Hartford are ripe for additional service due to their size and proximity to larger cities such as Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington. There is also demand between them as well, a recent study estimated some 428,000 passengers between Boston and New Haven, and that study did not include extending that service further down the NEC into Philadelphia and Washington. Also, these numbers were generated using conservative travel time and as a result, ridership and revenue is likely conservative. The study also estimated revenue to be about $18 million with fares average $42 but only for trips between Boston and New Haven and points in between.

Those larger cities’ effect can be dramatic. If trains are extended from New York through Springfield to Boston, revenue and averages fares would substantially exceed the study. When Virginia extended one Northeast Regional train from Washington to Lynchburg 2009, the train earned back its operating costs almost every year since. Its fares average about $60 which indicates that many passengers go beyond Washington to points north. However, attracting those passengers requires faster service than today’s infrastructure provides and extending trains from New Haven all the way to Washington. Amtrak dropped the service because it could offer 6h45m-7h35m service from Washington to Boston via Providence and adding back the service today without upgrades would result in an noncompetitive 9h travel time. See map below

Recent investments in other parts of the corridor will benefit this project.

·         In 2012, CSX sold the line between Boston and Worcester to MBTA and improvements are ongoing. For example, a 1 hour, nonstop commuter train began service between Boston and Worcester in 2016.

·         River Line between Springfield and Vermont is owned by commonwealth of Massachusetts and was recently upgraded

·         Hartford Line between Springfield, Hartford, and New Haven is being substantially upgraded for more trains

·         Springfield Union Station has been restored and has capacity for additional trains.

Additional investment

·         Boston-Worcester, 44 miles, 60mph top speed, 1h-1h15m, 35-44mph average speed

Raising the top speed to 79-90mph and modestly banking curves could reduce travel time to 45m, increasing average speeds to 59mph. Additional trains would have to run at off peak hours as South Station is close to capacity.

·         Worcester-Springfield 54 miles, 60mph top speed, 1h15m, 43mph average speed

Raising the top speed to 79-90mph and modestly banking curves could reduce travel time to 50m-1h, increasing average speeds to 54-65mph. While 39% of line has two tracks, heavy freight usage would require some sidings and second track although the line previously had two tracks and retains the old track bed and bridges. While the line is curvy, the curves are fairly broad, making banking easier. Unusually, there are only a handful grade crossings and none on major roads, providing substantial savings on crossing gates. 

A June 2016 study estimated $273-309 million in infrastructure costs.These costs can be broken into segments. An initial segment could restore a few trains without major travel time improvements and allow the state to gradually increase speeds and add trains as it obtains more funding. Given that Massachusetts has no problem spending billions on the South Coast Line or the infamous Green Line expansion, spending some transportation dollars on a project which connects the central part of the state may be politically feasible. See below for some cost estimates.

Note that Palmer station costs are estimated to be $12-14 million for a mere 9,600 riders.

The table below breaks down the cost of restoring a second track. Running few trains initially would reduce the amount second track needed.

 

Tables from study.

Typically, studies also include new railcars and locomotives as part the initial cost. I excluded that cost because initially, Connecticut and Massachusetts could pay Amtrak to extended some of its Northeast Regional trains from New York, just as Virginia did to get Amtrak into Lynchburg.

Service outcomes

Today

·         1 train between Boston and Springfield, 2h26m, averaging 40mph (Lakeshore Limited to Chicago)

Intermediate future

·         4 trains between Boston and Springfield, 2h3m, averaging 49mph, and continuing to Washington, 8h33m, averaging 54mph.

Far future

·         1 train between Boston, Springfield, and Albany 4h (Lakeshore Limited to Chicago)

·         1 train between Boston, Springfield, and Albany 4h

·         1 train between Boston, Springfield, White River Junction and Montreal 8h30m

·         2 trains between Boston, Springfield, and Brattleboro, 3h15m

·         5 trains between Boston and Springfield, 1h35m, averaging 62mph, and continuing to Washington, 8h5m, averaging 57mph. This travel time could be cut further by skipping some smaller Connecticut cities.  

Bottom line

Restoring the Inland route appears to be cost effective, especially if the study is as conservative as it appears to be. Eastern Massachusetts has successful commuter and intercity train service and sharing some of that success in the central and western part of the state could be politically feasible.